Ping An Securities: It is estimated that the overall net profit growth rate of listed banks will be 1% in 2025. Ping An Securities released the annual strategy report of the banking industry in 2025, saying that looking forward to 2025, the insufficient effective demand and the continuous pressure on asset-side pricing level are still important factors restricting the upward flexibility of bank profits. On the one hand, the inhibitory effect of insufficient effective demand on scale growth still exists, and it is estimated that the scale of new credit will be 17.9 trillion to 19.2 trillion yuan in 2025, corresponding to the year-end growth rate of 7.0%-7. On the other hand, the level of interest margin is also subject to the downward trend of asset-side pricing level, and factors such as LPR reduction, stock mortgage adjustment and implicit bond swap will continue to impact asset-side pricing. However, considering the acceleration of the reduction of deposit listing interest rate, the improvement of deposit repricing progress, and the supervision of manual interest payment and interbank liabilities, it is expected that the decline of interest margin will be slightly narrowed in 2025. In terms of asset quality, it is expected to remain stable, the policy will continue to exert its efforts to bottom out risks, the core indicators are expected to remain stable, and the provision is expected to continue to feed back the profit level. On the whole, it is estimated that the overall net profit growth rate of listed banks will be 1.0% in 2025. The idea of stock selection is "high dividend+pro-cyclical", and policy combination boxing promotes the repair of plate valuation.Outlook of Consumer Industry of Minyin Securities in 2025: The expansion of domestic demand grasps the opportunity of differentiation and change. Minyin Securities released a report on the outlook of consumer industry in 2025, saying that consumer demand is generally weak in 2024, and price factors also restrict growth. Looking forward to China's consumer industry in 2025: (1) Consumption plays a leading role and expanding domestic demand is in a more priority position. The variety and scale of trade-in of consumer goods are expected to continue to expand, and local governments will also introduce new policies to promote consumption in light of local conditions. (2) Rational consumption is more differentiated, and consumers pay for quality-price ratio and spiritual experience. The performance of Tou International Consumer Goods Company in China is also characterized by differentiation. Most of them recognize the long-term value of the China market. Despite short-term challenges, they plan to focus on strengthening localization and continue to invest in the China market. (3) When Trump comes to power, consumption will face greater challenges, and it will require higher global supply chain integration ability, diversified layout and localization ability. It is suggested to grasp the main line of domestic demand expansion, including dairy products with expected improvement at the bottom, outdoor sectors with high prosperity and tidal play sectors. If the demand recovers as scheduled, the catering/sports shoes and clothing/chain retail industry in a period of change will be flexible. In terms of export chain, it is necessary to observe whether the risk of trade friction is fully priced. In the medium term, the overseas market is vast, and the key to success is the added value and bargaining power of products, the matching degree between overseas demand and overseas supply chain, and the global diversified layout.In the first 11 months of this year, Guangdong's import and export increased by 10% year-on-year. According to statistics from Guangdong Branch of the General Administration of Customs, in the first 11 months of this year, Guangdong's foreign trade import and export reached 8.27 trillion yuan, up by 10% year-on-year, faster than the national growth rate by 5.1 percentage points, accounting for 20.8% of the national total import and export value. Among them, exports were 5.37 trillion yuan, an increase of 8.7%; Imports reached 2.9 trillion yuan, up by 12.6%.
CICC: The personal pension system in the Mainland has been fully extended to the whole country to help the long-term development of the insurance industry. CICC published a research report that the personal pension system in the Mainland has been fully extended to the whole country. The bank believes that as one of the important allocation directions of personal pension, various promotion policies will help the long-term development of the insurance industry. Although the average scale of personal pension is small compared with other savings insurance, it can still obtain stable long-term funds and high-quality new customers if it is properly operated. Zhongjin pointed out that in the early stage, the insurance industry may need to establish close ties with powerful sales channels or explore the characteristic mode of self-owned agent channel sales. In the long run, it is necessary to strengthen its own asset management capabilities and explore special services such as health care, which may help build core competitiveness.The cryptocurrency market fluctuated violently again, exceeding 110,000 people. In the past 24 hours, the cryptocurrency headed by Bitcoin jumped up and down. After Trump said "something great will be done in the cryptocurrency field", the price of Bitcoin once rose to about $102,500, and then profit-making funds poured out. Bitcoin plunged over $3,000, and the lowest dropped to around $99,200. Other smaller cryptocurrency varieties followed suit. Coinglass data shows that within 24 hours, the number of people in the cryptocurrency market has exceeded 110,000. At present, there are great differences in the market on cryptocurrency. Some optimists predict that Bitcoin may reach $150,000 in mid-2025. At the NEXT meeting in Reuters this week, American bankers expressed their caution about cryptocurrencies. BlackRock, a world-renowned asset management company, suggested in a report on Thursday that interested investors could consider allocating 2% of their portfolio to Bitcoin. However, the report also warned: "Investors should also be alert to the risks of Bitcoin, which may not be widely adopted in the end, and it is still very unstable and vulnerable to sharp selling." In addition, Turkish regulators said they would block access to dozens of cryptocurrency exchanges. (Broker China)CICC: It is expected that the central bank will further set up other new monetary instruments in the future. CICC said that on the basis of Politburo meeting of the Chinese Communist Party, the policy objectives and directions of the Central Economic Work Conference have been further stated. For next year's economic goals, after "maintaining stable economic growth", the meeting proposed to "maintain overall stability in employment and prices" and pointed out that "we should pay attention to target guidance and strive to achieve an optimal combination of stable growth, stable employment and reasonable price recovery". In terms of monetary policy, CICC believes that this meeting clearly pointed out that "timely RRR cuts and interest rate cuts". It is expected that in order to meet the government bond issuance, credit supply and seasonal liquidity demand, the RRR cut may be implemented before the Spring Festival, and the interest rate cut may also be gradually promoted with the Fed's interest rate cut. CICC also judged that in the past period, the central bank has established new monetary instruments such as treasury bonds trading tools, securities fund insurance company exchange facilities, and affordable housing refinancing, and its ability to play a role in the stock, bond, real estate and other markets has been strengthened, and other new instruments may be further established in the future. (SSE)
Japan's final industrial output value in October increased by 2.8% month-on-month and 1.4% year-on-year.New Beiyang (Thailand) Company opened. According to the news of New Beiyang, on December 12th, the launching ceremony of New Beiyang (Thailand) Company was held in chonburi province, Thailand. This was the first factory established by New Beiyang overseas, which marked another major breakthrough in the company's internationalization strategy and laid a solid foundation for the company's future internationalization development. The park leased by New Beiyang (Thailand) Company covers an area of more than 5,500 square meters in the first phase. At present, the special printing and scanning product line built in the factory has been successfully put into production and is ready to start mass delivery. In the future, the company will continue to expand the production and delivery of some smart equipment products in Thai factories.Fuli Zong took the helm for 100 days: the management, dealers and product ideas were completely adjusted. At the end of August this year, Fuli Zong took over the legal representative, chairman and general manager of Hangzhou Wahaha Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Wahaha") from his father Zong Qinghou, and took over 29.40% of the company's shares. By early December, more than three months had passed. In just 100 days, Fuli Zong, who is in charge of Wahaha, has implemented a series of controversial reform measures, including adjusting the organizational structure and almost completely replacing the core management; The employee contract and distributor contract of the core department were signed to Hongsheng Beverage Group Co., Ltd. (hereinafter referred to as "Hongsheng Beverage"); Reconstruct the dealer system, and even select the dealers in the form of "bidding" for the first time ... On December 11 -12, I called Ye Yaqiong, director of the president's office and director of the government affairs center of Wahaha Group, and contacted Wahaha public affairs related people to send them an interview outline, but as of press time, I did not get a reply. (21 Finance)
Strategy guide
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide 12-14
Strategy guide 12-14